New PM for Russia, But Does It Matter?

An unexpected shake-up within the Russian government has the wonks all atwitter. The media have prematurely crowned a man whose name they don't even utter as the next Russian president. But does it really matter?

Today, Vladimir Putin accepted the resignation of the Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov and nominated the hitherto low-profile Leningrader Victor Zubkov to fill the spot. It seems like 1999 all over again when Putin himself emerged from the shadows to become the heir-apparent to Boris Yeltsin, the first democratically-elected president of the second Russian republic. However, something is different here. Yeltsin was ill, unpopular, tired, and beaten. Putin is hale (judo-chop!), adored (in the words of Borat, "Like Stalin!"), invigorated (by America's Iraqi morass), and indefatigable (maybe because he's a teetotaler). In other words, he's not going anywhere. Yes, yes--we all know Putin is stepping down at the end of his second term to make way for a new Russian president--ostensibly Zubkov. However, Putin only promised to step down from the presidency. Unlike Mr. Bush who is already salivating about "replenishing the ol' coffers" after leaving office and whose administration is on auto-pilot, Putin is stepping up the political stakes and bringing his "A-game."

As Hans and Franz used to say--or was it Gov. Schwarzenegger--"hear me now and listen to me later:" Putin is going to Ukrainianize the Russian political system at the last minute by making the head of government more powerful than the head of state. However, unlike Ukraine where a Westernizing president was hamstrung by a pro-Russian PM, Putin will find nothing by pliant (if not supine) acquiescence to his electoral legerdemain. Using that tried-and-true Russian system known as "government-by-telephone," Putin will emasculate the office of the presidency in his final hours in office by transferring power to the office of Prime Minister. But before that, he will then utilize Russia's spectral political party structure to ensure his party-of-the-month (name suggestions for the upcoming election: Russia Rocks and You Suck! and Putin or Die) wins election thus enabling him to be appointed PM at his leisure. Voila, the master of political prestidigitation (see my chapter in George Kassimeris' Playing Politics with Terrorism) will have done it again. All legal and keeping with letter if not spirit of his previous declarations.

Now the bigger picture. Is this good or bad for Russia? Definitely good. Russians can expect better healthcare, a more reliable economic system, and certainly more respect internationally than was the case during the chaotic Yeltsin era. Is it good for the rest of us? If you are Polish, Latvian, or Georgian, then a chill is probably going through your spine right now. But what about the Chinese, Indians, Western Europeans, and Americans? The forecast is mixed.

As a PM with more power than Blair could have ever dreamed, Putin will undoubtedly continue to make Russia stronger. A strong Russia is not only desirable, it is a must for the security of Eurasia. But there is a price to pay, and we've already seen the preview: petro-politics where the losers freeze to death; American college students unable to leave Russia because they bought some Soviet baubles from a babushka; long-range Russian bomber flights in the Atlantic and Pacific; the "father of all bombs" tested publicly yesterday; etc.

With these tidbits in mind, we all need to start preparing ourselves for Putin version 2.o.