In a recent visit to Albania, President Bush received a much needed warm welcome by local officials, as well as by the local population. The reason was very simple: in contradiction with international law, Mr. Bush promised Albanians that Kosovo would be recognized as an independent country in a reasonable time period, thus rewarding the region that has the highest level of the organized crime in Europe. He looked very satisfied knowing that there exists a single European nation that actually likes him.
On the other side, the Russian president Vladimir Putin is very satisfied that the current political situation in Serbia corresponds to Russian interests in that part of Europe. Not long ago, the current prime minister of Serbia Vojislav Kostunica declared himself a big follower of the Western ideas in politics. Unfortunately, he did not take into account that he would sacrifice most of his former principles just to stay in power. From making a political union with former Milosevic and Arkan allies to the recent change of the party's status (Democratic Party of Serbia, not to be confused with Democratic Party in Serbia) which explicitly says that the party is against joining the NATO alliance in the future.
Taking into account the strongly entrenched views between the U.S. and Kosovo on one side and the Russian Federation and Serbia on the other, it seams that the (unified?) view of the European Union will have a decisive impact on the future solution of the breakaway region. But again, will it be there a unified EU view regarding Kosovo's future status? It is hard to confirm, particularly since there are many regions in Europe that have similar problems (including a recent widening chasm of distrust between Belgium's two main language communities). The long-run worst case scenario would be a possible recognition of Kosovo's independence without the resolution of the U.N. Security Council, which is unfortunately the most likely scenario considering the current situation.
What impact will it have on world politics? Will other problematic regions in the world take Kosovo's case as a prime example for their ultimate political goals (just to mention the cases of Abhkazia and Taiwan)? I would not be able to give a conclusive answer right now because there is, I believe, currently none.
In the case of the Balkan peninsula, there would be a long term animosity, not only between Kosovo and the rest of Serbia, but also between Bosnia (why the Republic of Srpska should not have the same rights as Kosovo?) and Serbia; not to mention a most likely scenario of Serb's rebellion in the northern part of Kosovo (where Serbs make up the majority of the population) against a unilateral declaration of Kosovo's independence. Depending on the general political relations between the Russian Federation and the U.S., Serbia actually might go more quickly into political and economic reforms than it would otherwise do with the region that is economically underdeveloped and has two million insubordinate people.
Yet, by accepting this fact, Serbia would have to give up its highly valued national pride which plays a huge role among the majority of Serbs.
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Today in the N.Y. Times today:
Reports that an armed group of ethnic Albanians has been patrolling in Kosovo near the boundary with Serbia has tested the nerves of politicians and international officials in the region days before the next round of talks on Kosovo’s future.Television images of about a dozen masked men were broadcast by Kosovo’s main public television channel last Wednesday, prompting protests from President Boris Tadic of Serbia as well as condemnation by senior politicians representing Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian majority. The armed men told the television crew that they were members of a shadowy guerrilla group called the Albanian National Army and said they intended to defend Kosovo, a province of Serbia, against Serbian forces.Mr. Tadic suggested that the broadcast on Radio Television of Kosova, which is backed by the regional government, was a “threat” by ethnic Albanians “to use violence and scare the Serbian population in Kosovo and an attempt to influence the negotiations.” His remarks were broadcast by the Serbian state-run news agency, Tanjug.Kosovo’s prime minister, Agim Ceku, who was a guerrilla leader during the conflict in the province in the late 1990s, said the “appearance of such individuals does not send a good message for Kosovo” during the talks.Leaders across Kosovo’s political spectrum say they are firmly committed to negotiations. But as Kosovo enters what is expected to be the last stage of talks between the Serbian government and ethnic Albanian leaders before a December deadline, the appearance of an ethnic Albanian guerrilla movement is regarded by many international officials as a reminder of what could happen if the process derails.Negotiations led by the United Nations to resolve Kosovo’s status began 14 months ago but have been stymied by the refusal of Russia, a Serbian ally, to support a Western-backed proposal to grant Kosovo independence with international supervision. (NYT, NICHOLAS WOOD)
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